India’s population challenge: Understanding the trends of population structure

Abstract

India stands at a critical juncture in its demographic journey. With over 1.4 billion people, it is not just the most populous nation in the world but also one of the most demographically diverse. The structure of its population, comprising the young dependent population, the working-age group, and the elderly, holds profound implications for the country’s socioeconomic development, employment landscape, and healthcare systems. This study explores long-term trends in India’s total population, working-age population (15-64), old-age population (65 & above), young dependents (0-14), urban & rural population, life expectancy at birth, population density, sex ratio, fertility rate, birth rate, and death rate to understand the evolving demographic landscape. The study utilizes data for all 22 variables from the World Bank Development Indicators covering the period from 1975 to 2022. To examine the trends, along with line diagram and CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), 11 different regression models, including linear, logarithmic, log-linear, power, exponential, compound, quadratic, cubic, logistic, and inverse, etc., are applied. By mapping the trends, the study underscores the urgent need for age-sensitive strategies to effectively manage India’s population challenges and maximise its demographic potential.